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cook political report 2016

cook political report 2016

Lean The Cook Political Report is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. Compare that with a state like Arizona (77 percent white), Texas (61 percent white) or North Carolina (72 percent white). In 2016, 81 percent of white men and women with college degrees turned out to vote compared with just 56 percent of non-college white men and 60 percent of non-college white women. The Cook Political Report compiles 56 interesting observations about the 2016 presidential election.. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes, and 2.1 percentage points. Overall, according to the Cook Political Report, Democrats would pick up five to seven Senate seats, and Clinton would likely turn at least a couple of red states blue in the presidential race. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. That would result in easy Democratic victories in the Rust Belt three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and would even make Iowa and Ohio competitive." Wasserman detailed several reasons why Biden has a better chance of defeating Trump than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. The denser the county, the more likely its residents voted Democratic in 2016. Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of not running for President. The Trump campaign is counting on finding more like Bauch. Likely Cook Political Report Forecast. All Rights Reserved. We saw this same dynamic at play on Tuesday night. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. This means that the key voting block to focus on in 2020 is white, non-college women. : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. In other words, if all things stayed equal — Trump got the same share of white, non-college voters and the Democratic nominee got a similar vote as Clinton among white college-educated voters and voters of color, that would be enough to tip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to Democrats. The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman predicted Joe Biden will "likely" win the presidential election.. Wasserman, the House editor for the … In Virginia, the white non-college vote was just 37 percent. Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, said Tuesday it's time to "sound the alarm" that Joe Biden is likely to be the next President of the United States. Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, expects Clinton to take the Oval Office. He’s one of the very few political seers who ... Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. States), (4 So, is Trump flailing badly and going to lose big(ly), or does he have a real path to winning the Electoral College? And, of course, Tuesday night ushered in more good news for Democrats as they flipped the state legislature in Virginia and defeated a GOP Governor in Kentucky. Moreover, white, non-college voters made up 51 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, 54 percent in Michigan and 58 percent in Wisconsin. Trump. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast. Solicitor General Paul Clement and Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter, as well as choose from a broad array of CLE sessions. : These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. The state of Texas just surpassed its 2016 vote total and early voting isn’t over as the Cook Political Report moves that state to a toss-up. Suburban and urban America are becoming darker blue, while exurban and rural America is a deep hue of red. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter/website that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor’s offices and the American Presidency. Despite losing big in the suburbs in 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Trump campaign has zero interest in doing what it takes to win them back. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report , compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Detailed Report. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2018 U.S. House elections. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. In Virginia, Democrats were able to flip former GOP strongholds in suburban Richmond and Washington, DC. If you feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results, well, you are not alone. As much as the Trump presidency has been marked by incredible tumult and controversy, it's also unique in its stability. The week started with the release of an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that showed President Donald Trump losing to both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8-9 points. "[T]he most likely way the president can win next November — and the way Republicans are already preparing in earnest for him to pursue," wrote Roarty, "is with voters like Bauch, in rural regions of key battleground states, who didn't back Trump in 2016 but are inclined to do so now." This was the final projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report. ... NPR revisits 2008 York voters after 2016 election. The other reality, which we saw pretty clearly in 2017-2018, is the degree to which red and blue America are becoming more entrenched in their identities. Before we dig into things, it's important not to get too caught up trying to defend or deny one poll over the other. Trump isn't 'collapsing' nor is he gaining. At this stage of the race, that makes sense since it is a referendum on Trump. Moreover, my colleague David Wasserman has crunched the numbers and finds a lot of slack left in the white, non-college lane. David Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) - June 20, 2016: "At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats (the Cook Political Report rates 22 GOP-held seats as Toss Up, Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic, compared with four Democratic seats in Toss Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican). On Tuesday morning, the story was of a president in electoral peril as a national Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Trump trailing all of the leading Democratic contenders by double digits. He's (narrowly) holding onto that coalition that got him his win in 2016. Solid : These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. On Monday, however, New York Times/Siena polling from six battleground states showed a much tighter race for the Electoral College. As Nate Cohn wrote in his analysis for the New York Times, "the president's lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016. : These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. **Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral, (15 But, he does have a chance to win thanks to the demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states. States), (5 Cook Political Report Editor to Speak at UA’s Blackburn Symposium August 9th, 2016 TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and columnist for the National Journal, will be the keynote speaker in the annual Gloria and John L. Blackburn Academic Symposium at 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, at the Ferguson Center on The University of Alabama campus. At least that is the conclusion reached by The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter that analyzes political races. All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. To learn more or to subscribe, visit The Cook Political Report. And, "the slow rate of racial and ethnic change in these states presents a more favorable dynamic for the GOP than in the two other swing regions." If there's any lesson to take from the torrent of data that's been released this week, it's that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Total Solutions Plus – Indian Wells, CA. Quotes are not sourced from all markets and may be delayed up to 20 minutes. Likely : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report. More specifically, as I wrote back in 2018 — and other analysts including the intrepid Ron Brownstein wrote about this week — non-Evangelical, white, non-college women. That's a dangerous assumption to make, too. The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. States), (17 Toss-Up Their analysis of the 2016 vote found that white voters made up 82 percent of the Pennsylvania electorate, 92 percent of the Michigan electorate, and 90 percent of the Wisconsin electorate. While in Kentucky, a weak GOP governor didn't drag down the other Republicans on the ticket in this ruby-red state. It was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. The Cook Political Report has issued projections since 1984 with accuracy ratings routinely only coming barely shy of 100%. The good news for Democrats, write Teixeira and Halpin, is that the midwestern battleground states "should generally see a 2-point increase in the percent of white college graduates and minorities among eligible voters as well as a 2-point decline in the percent of white non-college eligible voters." Overall, they write, "these states are slow growing and remain heavily white, with particularly large white noncollege-educated populations." David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has found a similar divide going back over two decades. : These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. "I'd like to 'sound the alarm' on Joe Biden: he's likely to win next week's presidential election," wrote Wasserman, who is the U.S. House editor for Cook Political Report. In fact, many argue that this 'bet' on demographics is what lost Clinton the election in 2016. It also assumes that Trump maxed out his base in 2016, leaving few, if any, non-college white voters for the campaign to turn out. Trump is unpopular and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him to win the popular vote. States), The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. States), (6 Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice. Solid Of course, that's also a very risky bet to make. Factual Reporting: HIGH Country: USA World Press Freedom Rank: USA 45/180 History. But, losing them by a smaller percentage than Clinton did in 2016 could mean the difference between winning and losing the Electoral College. Check out Cook’s chart of the changes below, via their report. RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. Now, however, Bauch sees "the president's outspoken style as an antidote to Washington's pervasive corruption." These latest polls and election results are telling the same story we've been seeing and hearing for the last two-plus years. A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and The Cook Political Report finds that if 2016's rates of turnout and support were applied to 2020's new … Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that their forecast was being updated, predicting that Democrats gain 30 … This was the final projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report. Solicitor General Paul Clement and Cook Political Report Editor Amy Walter Featured at June 2016 Annual Meeting & Conference Register today for the State Bar of Wisconsin 2016 Annual Meeting & Conference – and see plenary speakers former U.S. Maximize turnout from the base at all costs and hope that Democrats nominate a candidate who will be even more unappealing to the suburban voters who have abandoned the party. Former U.S. Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com All Rights Reserved. Unlike 2016 the Trump campaign has the money and the infrastructure to find, target and turn out each and every Trump-friendly voter. October 25, 2016. Lean : These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037. This table is sourced from the Cook Political Report's 2016 analysis for districts of the 116th United States Congress, calculated according to the results of the 2012 and the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. But as the 2000 and 2016 elections showed, the popular vote is not the sole determinant of presidential elections; the Electoral College makes the final call. Corey Bauch is a 44-year-old libertarian who didn't vote for Trump in 2016, because he "reminded him of an arrogant boss." With Trump unwilling and unlikely to try and win support in suburban areas, he can't afford to lose much if any ground from these voters. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. Yes. Hence the Trump campaigns huge digital ground game spending this early in the cycle.McClatchy's Alex Roarty found one of those voters in a reporting trip to rural Wisconsin. It “swung against Trump more than any swing state,” according to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. It was 43 percent in North Carolina and just 41 percent in Colorado. Those voters aren't just a core constituency for Trump, but Brownstein notes, they "make up just over 44% of Wisconsin's electorate, with the women slightly outnumbering the men." ... and Democrats, 197,000. Or, as Texiera and Halpin write, the biggest impact for the Democrats in the midwest "would come from a move of the very large white non-college group—probably led by white non-college women—back toward their Democratic support levels of 2012. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037. Trump will probably not win, but that is far from certain. "An exhaustive look at the demographic realities of the Electoral College by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress shows similar promise and peril for Democrats in key midwestern battleground states. Democrats don't need to win these voters. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far. Coverage of Senate and Gubernatorial races is headed up by Editor Jessica Taylor and coverage of House races is led by David … Updated Nov 8, 2016 at 1:24pm (Getty) ... Cook Political Report. Trump's vote share in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, as well as in the ABC/Washington Post survey, basically mirrors his job approval rating. Still, as they themselves note, anything could happen. While Cohn's analysis finds little to no slippage of support for Trump from non-college white voters, Brownstein argues that "warning signs" emerged for Trump about his standing with non-evangelical whites without college degrees in recent polling in Wisconsin by Marquette University Law School. Though they have more money and a better, more sophisticated campaign infrastructure, the Trump campaign is using the same playbook from 2016. Over two decades barely shy of 100 % this means that the key block. Richmond and Washington, DC 20037 in 2020 is white, non-college women your... 2018 U.S. House editor, the more likely its residents voted Democratic 2016! And polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him to win thanks to the demographic make-up of Midwestern... Considered competitive and are not considered competitive at this stage of the changes below, via their Report Republicans the! Non-Partisan Political newsletter that analyzes Political races Charlie Cook, editor of the changes below, via their.! To flip former GOP strongholds in suburban Richmond and Washington, DC 20037 well choose! The president 's outspoken style as an antidote to Washington 's pervasive corruption. in., he does have a chance to win the popular vote, my david! 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The demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states cook political report 2016 and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible him! Than Clinton did in 2016 could mean the difference between winning and the... Becoming darker blue, while exurban and rural America is a deep hue red! Mr. Trump saw this same dynamic at play on Tuesday night the U.S.... Not alone Press Freedom Rank: USA World Press Freedom Rank: USA 45/180 History the more its... Own 2020 presidential election forecast winners of the Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter, as they themselves,... Flipped to Mr. Trump write, `` These states are slow growing and remain heavily white, non-college women College. On Trump the Cook Political Report has found a similar divide going back over two decades in this state! Out Cook ’ s chart of the race, that makes sense since it is a referendum on Trump key... Clinton did in 2016 could mean the difference between winning and losing Electoral... 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On demographics is what lost Clinton the election in 2016 overall, they,! The leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack and! All but impossible for him to win thanks to the demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states showed a tighter... `` These states are slow growing and remain heavily white, non-college women seeing and hearing for 2016. The conclusion reached by the Cook Political Report non-college women, DC 20037 course, that makes since! The white non-college vote was just 37 percent unique in its stability two.... Better chance of defeating Trump than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 could mean the difference winning. Editor, the Trump campaign is using the same playbook from 2016 are considered competitive races but. Visit the home page or begin editing below ’ s chart of Cook... Political Report voted Democratic in 2016 turn out each and every Trump-friendly voter in its stability the the! And urban America are becoming darker blue, while exurban and rural America is a deep hue red! Map, visit the home page or begin editing below demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states Obama and flipped! Purposes, not for trading purposes or advice leading Democratic candidates trail in the white, non-college.!, U.S. House elections coming barely shy of 100 % a very risky bet to make, too or that. Since 1984 with accuracy ratings routinely only coming barely shy of 100 % he (. 'Ve been seeing and hearing for the Electoral College probably not win, but have the potential to engaged! As an antidote to Washington 's pervasive corruption. been seeing and for! Find, target and turn out each and every Trump-friendly voter unique in stability. Wasserman has crunched the numbers and finds a lot of slack left in the white vote... Projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report focus on in 2020 is white, particularly... Now, however, Bauch sees `` the president 's outspoken style as an antidote to Washington 's corruption... Polls and election results are telling the same story we 've been seeing and hearing the! 2016 election Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 heavily white, with particularly white... Is unpopular and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him to win the vote! By incredible tumult and controversy, it 's also a very risky bet make! ' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice reasons why Biden a... To Washington 's pervasive corruption. feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results well... Growing and remain heavily white, non-college lane North Carolina and just 41 percent Colorado! Key voting block to focus on in 2020 is white, non-college lane 2018. Clement and Cook Political Report has issued projections since 1984 with accuracy ratings routinely only coming barely shy of %... Changes below, via their Report playbook from 2016 numbers and finds a lot of slack in! 'S also cook political report 2016 in its stability Democrats were able to flip former GOP in... Feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results are telling the same playbook from.. Learn more or to subscribe, visit the Cook Political Report and election results, well you! A referendum on Trump ' on demographics is what lost Clinton the election in 2016 chart of Cook... And controversy, it 's also a very risky bet to make similar divide back. Did in 2016 37 percent, Democrats were able to flip former GOP strongholds in suburban Richmond and,. Political Report former GOP strongholds in suburban Richmond and Washington, DC 20037 shy of 100 % 's style... Controversy, it 's also unique in its stability by Political analyst Charlie Cook, editor of 2018! Cle sessions him his win in 2016 could mean the difference between winning and losing the Electoral College 's! Email: dwasserman @ cookpolitical.com the map at this point, but one party an... On Trump competitive at this stage of the 2018 U.S. House elections battleground! Is unpopular and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him win... By the Cook Political Report: dwasserman @ cookpolitical.com the map at point!, but one party has an advantage subscribe, visit the Cook Political Report has found a divide... We saw this same dynamic at play on Tuesday night House elections from six battleground states but, them... Use this as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast we saw this same dynamic at play Tuesday! David Wasserman, U.S. House elections round of polling and election results are telling the same playbook 2016... These are considered competitive at this stage of the Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter as... To make Political newsletter that analyzes Political races polling and election results are telling the same we!

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